1월 FOMC 의사록 주요 체크리스트 원문 분석

안녕하세요.

로빈후드입니다.

 

 

 

 

 

한국 시간으로 2월 17일(목) 새벽 4시에는 많은 분들이 주목하고 계셨던 FOMC 의사록(Minutes)이 발표가 됐는데요.

특별한 내용은 없었지만,

 

 

- 3월 FOMC까지 금리인상 없다
- QT(앙적긴축)는 금리인상 이후

 

 

정도의 내용이 시장의 변동성을 줄여주며 -1.2%까지 떨어지던 나스닥 지수가 많이 회복되기도 했었는데요.

 

 

1월 FOMC 의사록의 주요 내용으로는 어떤것들이 있었는지, 

그리고 유의해야될 점 등은 어떤것들이 있었는지 알아보겠습니다.

 

 

원문은 총 20page이며 아래의 링크를 통해 확인 가능합니다.

 

 

 

▼▼▼ 의사록 링크 ▼▼▼

 

 

The Fed - Meeting calendars and information

 

 

 

 

 

아래는 20page의 의사록 중, 주요한 부분이라고 개인적으로 생각되는 원문 부문을 해석한 내용입니다.

*의역이 과합니다. 양해해주세요.

 

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Participants observed that, in light of the current high level of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings,

a significant reduction in the size of the balance sheet would likely be appropriate.

[현재 상황으로 봐서는, 대차대조표 줄이는것(QT)이 맞다고 보는 의견 존재]

 

 

The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, 

bringing them to an end in early March

[테이퍼링 종결은 이른 3월로 결정, 즉 기존안을 유지]

 

A couple of participants stated that they favored ending the Committee’s net asset purchases sooner to send

an even stronger signal that the Committee was committed to bringing down inflation.

[몇몇 의원들은 테이퍼링을 계획된 것보다 일찍 종결해야 한다고 주장]

 

 

Participants judged that the timing and pace of balance sheet reduction would be determined so as to promote

the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals and that it would be appropriate to begin the

process of reducing the size of the balance sheet after the process of increasing the target range for the federal

funds rate has begun.

[양적긴축(Balance sheet reduction, QT)은 최대 고용, 가격 안정이 고려돼야 될 것이며, 금리 인상 목표치 인상 이후에 진행 적합]

 

Participants remarked that recent inflation readings had continued to significantly exceed the Committee’s longer-run

goal and elevated inflation was persisting longer than they had anticipated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances

related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy.

[최근의 인플레이션은 장기 목표를 상당히 초과했으며, 예상보다 오래 지속되고 있음. 원인은 코로나와 수급 불균형]

 

Participants acknowledged that elevated inflation was a burden on U.S. households, particularly those who were least able to pay higher prices for essential goods and services.

[인플레이션 상승은 경제에 큰 부담]

 

A few participants noted that asset valuations were elevated across a range of markets and raised the concern that

a major realignment of asset prices could contribute to a future downturn.

[전 시장에 걸쳐 자산가격이 상승하고 있으며, 미래 가치 하락의 우려 제기]

*현재 상황이 지속될 경우, 장기적으로는 자산 가치가 하락할 것이라고 보는 듯 합니다.

 

Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the

Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate.

[인플레이션 예상대로 내려가지 않는다면, 더 빠른 속도로 유동성 정책을 조정할 것]

*2월 CPI 발표 이후, 시장 예상치 상회의 경우 0.5bp 금리 인상(Big Step)도 감안해야 할 것으로 보입니다.

 

 

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즉, 위에서 말씀드렸듯이, 긴급 회동을 통한 갑작스러운 금리 인상은 역시나 '기우'였고, 양적 긴축 역시 금리 인상이 진행된 이후에 

이루어질 것이다라는 연준의 시그널이 시장을 어느정도 안정화 시킨 것 같네요.

 

 

 

이제 2월 CPI에 모든게 달려있는듯 합니다.

지금까지 1월 연준 의사록 원문에 대해서 분석해봤습니다.

 

 

 

감사합니다.